U.S. Bank Crisis Prepared $81.83 billion for Crypto Bull Market
블록스트리트 등록 2023-05-18 14:42 수정 2023-05-18 14:42
Amid a series of collapse of traditional U.S. banks, U.S. investors have begun to choose Tether.
# U.S. Bankruptcy Woke Investors From Matrix
The beginning began when the idea on asset deposits has been changed from investors. This is because banks, which were considered the 'safetyiest places' for asset deposits, have gone bankrupt one after another.
The back-to-back bankruptcies of U.S. banks, which began in earnest in March, have created widespread fear in U.S. society.
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank went bankrupt one after another. Nevertheless, the high possibility of additional bankruptcies of small and medium-sized U.S. banks have been reported on the news.
As the place that had been considered the 'safetyiest place' turned into the 'most dangerous place,' many investors' perceptions began to change completely from the previous one.
The investors withdrew the currency deposited in the bank and began to search for new assets.
In this situation, many investors have actually bought gold, a traditional safe asset. As evidenced by this, gold prices have been renewing their highest prices every day after breaking their highest prices in three years.
However, some investors have begun to make different choices based on the completely reversed idea. They started looking for cryptocurrency that are treated as 'new assets'.
'Digital Gold' Bitcoin (BTC) also soared in conjunction with the bank collapse. At the end of April, when First Republic Bank was collapsing, the price of Bitcoin rose 5% overnight.
But that was all. Bitcoin also faced a sharp drop with 'malicious rumors' that the U.S. government's wallet is selling large-scale Bitcoin.
# Tether Chosen By Investors Amid Chaos
It seems that the option chosen by investors who changed their minds is the stablecoin Tether.
Tether, which dominated the stablecoin market with the slogan of having the same value with dollar, was chosen by investors.
As evidenced by this, Tether's trading volume soared in an instant.
Tether's daily trading volume overwhelmed Bitcoin, which is firmly the No. 1 market cap. Tether's daily trading volume reached about $16.5 billion on the 10. Oct, exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume by about 40%.
The performance of Tether Inc., the issuer of Tether, which was chosen by investors, was truly amazing.
Tether announced on the 11. Oct that they achieved a market capitalization of around $81.83 billion and recorded about $1.48 billion in operating profit in the first quarter.
Considering that Tether's excess reserves in the last quarter of last year were $1.48 billion, Tether earned the same amount of excess reserves it had accumulated over the years within the first quarter of this year.
# Tether Is Just the Tether
The surge in demand for Tether does not mean that investors have bought Tether as a 'safe asset'.
This becomes clear considering the value and nature of the use of stablecoin tethers.
Tether is used as a 'key currency' in most global exchanges. It plays the same role as the 'chip' of the casino. In other words, it is a fact that it is used as a medium for trading cryptocurrency on behalf of dollars in the exchanges.
There is also an argument that the increase in demand for tethers reflects investors demand for U.S. government bonds, which are safe assets, and buy dollars to avoid banks.
In fact, most of Tether's reserves are made up of U.S. government bonds.
Tether said last year that management changed a large portion of its reserves into U.S. government bonds in the face of numerous allegations pointing to Tether's financial solvency. These details were revealed in the reserve certification report released by Tether on the 11. Oct.
The U.S. government bond holdings disclosed by Tether in its report account for about 64% of the total reserves.
However, Tether itself cannot meet the 'hedging assets' conditions under bank bankruptcy fears.
The essential problem with the bankruptcy of U.S. banks is, after all, the U.S. economic crisis. The final destination for a series of bankruptcies of dollar-deposited banks is a severe blow to the U.S. economy, the center of the dollar economy.
By interpreting it macroscopically, the defense line that can be collapsed firstly in accordance with the U.S. economic crisis is the dollar and U.S. government bonds.
Investors' Tether choices can be interpreted as expectations for the cryptocurrency market, not trust in Tether.
# Bullets for Crypto Bull Market Are Ready.
The increase in Tether's market capitalization is quite different from what it looked like when the 'FTX incident' occurred in November last year.
The result revealed through on-chain during the FTX crisis is that investors were busy fleeing the cryptocurrency market. At that time, Tether's market capitalization continued to fall continuously, recording a drop of about 12% from its peak.
Considering the case of using Tether, this meant that the 'bullet' to purchase cryptocurrency had left the market intact.
But it's different now. At a time when the banking crisis is increasing distrust of the dollar, U.S. government bonds and the U.S. economic system, Tether's increased market capitalization could mean a rise in the volume of bullets in the cryptocurrency market.
Of course, depending on the nature of the tether, it can be replaced with dollars at one point and leave the cryptocurrency market.
However, there is an issue that needs to be reviewed. The fact is that many investors are missing the main cause of Bitcoin's rise and plunge during the U.S. bank bankruptcy crisis. Most investors are missing the cause of the plunge, focusing on the rapid decline.
The main cause of Bitcoin's plunge was the 'malicious rumor'.
Blockchain data analysis company Glassnode reported that the U.S. government's Bitcoin wallet balance showed no visible movement.
The increase in Tether's market capitalization due to the bankruptcy of U.S. banks could mean a change in U.S. investors' perception and a rise in the cryptocurrency market.
권승원 기자 ksw@